AI’s New Dawn: Predicting Tech’s 2024 Breakthroughs

AI’s New Dawn: Predicting Tech’s 2024 Breakthroughs

The Gist

  • Rapid industry growth. The past year marked a significant period in tech, witnessing major breakthroughs and dynamic changes across AI, self-driving tech, and mixed reality.
  • Executive turbulence. OpenAI witnessed internal upheavals, with Ilya Sutskever’s potential exit and leadership controversies, reflecting the volatile nature of tech companies.
  • Market valuation fluctuations. Big Tech companies like Meta and NVIDIA experienced dramatic shifts in market capitalization, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the tech stock market.

The past year was easily the most interesting I’ve covered in more than a decade on the tech beat. We witnessed legitimate technological breakthroughs, the breaking and reformation of OpenAI, the ascent of NVIDIA, the fall of SBF, and wild, Big Tech-driven swings in the stock market.

Next year might top it. The tech industry has poured so much money and effort into generative AI that new models and products will soon flood the market. Some will retain information for longer than today’s bots, and others might start to reason. This evolution of LLMs leads my list of predictions for 2024, covering what’s next for AI, self-driving, mixed reality, and more:

Generative AI’s Next Steps Come Into Focus

Large language models are neat, but they’re nowhere near AI’s final destination. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said ChatGPT “is not very good” at an NYC gala last week. In 2024, we’re going to see what good looks like.

OpenAI chatbot company logo on a website with blurry stock market developments in the background, seen on a computer screen through a magnifying glass in piece about technology predictions for 2024.
Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said ChatGPT “is not very good” at an NYC gala last week. In 2024, we’re going to see what good looks like.Dennis on Adobe Stock Photos

Models will start to remember us, extending their ability to hold a conversation across multiple sessions. Startups will make progress on getting AI agents to book flights, call Ubers and file expenses. A new obsession will emerge around large language models’ ability to reason vs. predict the next word. The debate over whether LLMs can reason will be the AI field’s most contentious fight in 2024.

Related Article: Sam Altman Returns to OpenAI: How the Chaos Changes the AI Field

Ilya Sutskever Leaves OpenAI

After joining the effort to oust Sam Altman as OpenAI’s CEO — and quickly regretting it — OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever will find a new home in 2024. You can take back some things, but throwing an $80 billion+ company into existential chaos isn’t one of them. In a note upon his return, Altman said he and Sutskever were discussing how Sutskever “can continue his work at OpenAI.” There will be plenty of bids for Sutskever’s services, with a bunch likely in his inbox already. If he chooses to leave, his likeliest next step is Anthropic.

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